Monday, January 09, 2012

Waiting for Rain in Buenos Aires

(Deep in the Province of Buenos Aires--) From Shanghai to Chicago the world is looking for the same thing in the same place: rain in Buenos Aires.

Some are saying the a this is the worst drought in 70 years; perhaps surpassing that of three years ago. No matter the measure, this particularly intense dry-spell has been profound.

Tonight, however, great rains have been forecast. Last week, the news reached the world's grain markets.

If tonight passes without a great good soaker, the world's second largest corn exporter and the world's third largest soy exporter will almost certainly suffer disastrous losses. Due to the extent that the national government relies on revenue from those sources, those losses could be widely felt here.

Today, the wind off the toasted pampas is like a blast furnace as temperatures reach a rare 100 degrees fahrenheit. Rural fire departments are stretched to their limits fighting brush fires that threaten live and property. One stray cigarette or spartk from a passing vehicle could destroy thousands of dollars of fenceline or any family farmhouse.

Tonight, firefighters and property owners could sleep easy for the first time in more than a week.

Insects and wildlife are scurring from the dry vegetation to seek open water tanks or any sources of moisture. Cattle seek shade but are more fortified after a particularly wet winter and spring.

Coffee shops, truck stops, and smartphones are alive with the buzz of forecasts from the major weather websites of North America and Europe. At this late hour, fears are spreading that the rain will be insubstantial or will pass the pampas with nothng more than scattered showers.

Prayers to San Expedito, the local saint of "just-in-time" are beginning to challenge bandwidth.

(UPDATE)
By Hugh Bronstein 
    BUENOS AIRES, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Rains swept through parts of
Argentina's grains belt early Wednesday, providing some relief to corn and soy
fields parched by weeks of dry weather, while farmers clamored for government
aid. 
    The drought has shrunk Argentina's corn crop, which the world has been
counting on to replenish international supplies after a disappointing U.S.
harvest. The South American country is also a major soy exporter.  
    "The rains were not heavy but they were significant considering the dryness
that had been with us, in the worst areas, for 50 days," said Martin Fraguio,
executive director of Argentina's main corn industry chamber Maizar. 
    "The drought has ended. Farmers slept better last night than they have in a
long time," he added. "It is possible that we may get more showers today, if the
stormfront stays where it is." 
    Forecasters are calling for another front to move into Argentina's grains
belt on Tuesday of next week. 
    Chicago grain futures had been pushed higher by the bad weather in the
world's No. 2 corn exporting country. 
    "It rained 20, 30 millimeters. We needed more than 100," said Fabian Martin,
who operates a small corn and soy farm in the Pampas town of Carlos Casares in
Buenos Aires province. 
    "But crops have already been very punished, principally corn," Martin said.
The drought has cost him up to half of his corn crop and about 20 percent of his
soy. 
    Growers are taking to the airwaves to pressure the government into providing
assistance by suspending export taxes.   
    Government officials will sit down with growers' organizations on Thursday
to discuss the situation. So far the farm ministry has not promised the kind of
help, such as tax breaks, that is being asked of it. 
    Eduardo Buzzi, head of the Agrarian Federation farm group, chided
Agriculture Minister Norberto Yauhar, telling local television that the minister
"obviously knew little about the drought." 
    Buzzi said, "He should take off his tie and get into the fields to see for
himself." 
    Farmers complain about the 35-percent tax the government puts on soy
exports. They say such measures are hurting investment in Argentina's
agriculture sector at a time of rising global food demand. 
     
   The country provides about 20 percent of the world's corn exports, 12 percent
of soybean exports, and nearly half the exports of soyoil used for cooking and
biofuels. 
    But an unforgiving southern hemisphere summer sun baked Argentina's corn and
soy plants this month and last, just as they entered their key flowering stage.
   
    The crop losses could add to fiscal and political problems expected to be
faced by President Cristina Fernandez this year. 
    The popular leader easily won a second four-year term in October, but her
government is bracing for fallout from Europe's financial crisis and slower
demand growth from key commodities client China as well as No. 1 trade partner
Brazil. 
    The sluggish world economy could crimp the welfare spending at the heart of
Fernandez's policy mix. 
    U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans fell Wednesday, weighed down by a firmer
dollar and the Argentine rains. But trade was restrained ahead of U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop reports on Thursday which are expected to
indicate some South American corn has suffered irreparable damage.  
     (Reporting By Hugh Bronstein)

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