Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Why Argentina?

I need some help here, dear readers. If you could, explain to me the attention that La República is getting in the angloparlante press (I admit that I don't follow the presse, Press, stampa, or even the prensa outside of América.)

We're a relatively small country with little impact on the world stage. The government at Buenos Aires comes in 3rd or 4th in influence even here in South America.

So why the sudden scrutiny?

The admittedly "tin" parts of my hat started to buzz a little with the widely reported "bloodbath" in the Argentine bond markets over the Kirchner creativity with inflation figures.

There's no way the Yanq would last a day as a bond trader... but even a dope like me would have dropped RA bonds like a hot potato months ago when the K's started in to tweakin'. That the crash and/or it's reporting would come during election week here was having trouble passing my smell test... but I let it slide.


Now comes "THE RETURN OF PRICE CONTROLS" by Newsweek columnist Daniel Gross in today's Slate.com. My crap-detector always goes off when any headline or article contains any variations on the phrase "cry for me"... but I let that slide too and started reading the article.

Lo and behold, (after a blurb mentioning "moonbats led by Hugo Chavez") three countries are profiled in the piece: #1 Argentina, #2 Russia, #3 China.

I'm not sure Argentina even deserves to be included in a discussion of price controls (have YOU felt any controls on the prices you pay?) but #1 ARGENTINA?!? Very interesting. What gives?

Mr. Gross starts off by mentioning this country's economy expanding faster than almost any other for the last five years in a row... and the resulting inflation that came with it. He goes on to say,
"President Néstor Kirchner, eager to pave the way for his wife, Cristina, to succeed him and wary of taking the tough fiscal steps necessary to contain inflation, has taken cues from northern neighbors Venezuela and the United States."
...but he never mentions what cues he is talking about. If anybody can help me understand what he's referring to, please do.

He does, however, point to "price controls on energy" and cites an Economist story from back in June. But the Economist doesn't mention price controls:
"During Argentina's 2001-02 economic crisis, the government forcibly converted all energy tariffs from dollars to pesos, representing a cut of nearly two-thirds in their real value. Since then, only a handful of modest increases have been permitted, resulting in energy prices that are some 40% lower than those in neighbouring countries."
Maybe the Econ is too intelligent to apply the term price controls to the measures taken here during that cataclysmic period. 40% lower energy prices also sounds like something of an achievement to me... how 'bout you? What would the country look like today if you took that 40% away?

But he points to one more price control (before, again closing with the universally-known creativity with inflation figures and the zinger: "now Cristina Kirchner is going to have to clean up her husband's mess." (Forgive my obvious ignorance at thinking that every Argentine president for the past 24 years would love to have had "her husband's mess" to clean up.)
Last year, as the New York Times reported, Kirchner "sought to persuade producers and stores to agree to voluntary freezes on prices of hundreds of products, including sugar, flour, noodles, bread, shampoo and pencils."
He also says that those attempts at voluntary persuasion "didn't work". Come on! Somebody hep me, hep me please! Where's the price controls and why do we deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Russia and China?

Is the article simply a poorly written one or is it pointing to some importance that Daniel Gross can't bring himself to mention?

(full disclosure: The Kirchners have seriously damaged my family's ability to make a living during the past 4 years... I have no personal reason to defend them.)

8 comments:

Pablo said...

The "bloodbath" article was pointed out to me by a reader. It reminded me of the times of the default, when investors reacted indignantly as if Argentina hadn't been on the brink of collapse for years. Those supposedly savvy investors seem to be very stupid, actually; the first lesson learned in "vulture fund school" is that high rates correlate with high risks.

Also, tell the Economist that the government actually made the companies charge in pesos what they were charging in dollars. And I don't remember the companies saying they were going to pay their workers in dollars instead of pesos to keep them from the effects of devaluation.

I'm wondering, if European companies in the U.S. started charging people in euros and George W. forced them to do it in dollars, would the Economist complain?

Longhorn Dave said...

Maybe price controls is too strong a word and not quite accurate. However, it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck. So maybe we'll agree to call it a goose?

yanqui mike said...

I think it truly was too strong a word. But the man is an esteemed writer... so I have to believe that he chooses his words carefully.

I always liked the "looks like duck" analogy until 25 years of neo-cons made me pine for distinctions like geese. Like Pablo was saying Euros, Dollars, and Pesos may look like ducks, geese and chickens... but you'll never fool the big boys.

Grouping our fair backwater país in with Russia and China, I have to believe, as well, was a considered decision on the part of Mr. Gross. Reasonable people might term that little axis-of-whoknowswhat a little strong too.

So... what do we have here and why do we have it here?

My theory is that Slate pays the esteemed Newsweek columnist by the column and buys whatever he sends in. He dashes them off and looks for his check. It sure doesn't look like he had an editor.

At least I hope that's what it is.

Longhorn Dave said...

Yankster:

Here is another article today that refers to the "failed price control measures" of the Kirshner admin.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c1640353-d2ab-4600-beb0-ec6c74ce4c4d

yanqui mike said...

"http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c1640353-d2ab-4600-beb0-ec6c74ce4c4d">

Here's
a good link to the page you mentioned.

It's a great story on the Ks' policy of measuring inflation in their own creative way.

But it doesn't mention price controls other than to identify the gov's point man for the voluntary price controls that everybody knows failed.

What gives, Tex? Are you and Daniel Gross on to something that you're afraid to outright mention? Why Argentina?

Anonymous said...

Argentina has a unique economic history and it is hard for me to believe the economists or the Kirchners really know what will happen in the big picture with these short term fixes. We all have kneejerk responses to abberations from accepted economic principles.

Unknown said...

Maybe it´s because Argentina turned out to be a real live example of how not to listen to the FMI. There was a before and after for the FMI in regards to what happened to Argentina. Also, there are people out there who lost a lot of money (I know that Argentine citizens lost too, I was here for the bloodletting) and who are still pissed off. I don´t know, those are just two ideas that came to me off the top of my head.

What do you think Chicagueño?

yanqui mike said...

Me? I think that you're on to something, Frank.

Argentina was warned by all the "grown-ups" that it would become an international pariah... at least in the financial markets.

Didn't happen. Instead the RA economy grew as fast as China for every year since.

I can't say for better or worse but the world is changing. There seem to be unexpected winners and losers.