October US Senate update

Let's get this one in now...and I'll be back with the last one in November to make some real predictions.

(In the meantime, I'll have visitors from Yanquilandia, my dear Aunt and Uncle for about 5 weeks! There'll be much re-looking at Buenos Aires thru their eyes and that should make for some good BsAs posts.)

Like I said in my last update, there are 13 states in which neither party has a lock on the outcome. Dems need 11 of those 13 to form a majority...the US House of Represetatives will go very Democrat this november so we're concentrating on the Senate here.

The good news is that Dems have locked-up 7 of my original 13!

The bad news is that they still need 4 of the above 6.

Of the above 6:

MT is in the bag for the Democrats.
RI will dump the incumbent Republican.
TN will have its first Black Senator (at least since Reconstruction), the Dem Harold Ford

That leaves the Dems with 10 of the necessary 11.

AZ has been a good strong campaign but it's looking mighty red at this point.
MO will probably stay Republican if for nothing more their money advantage.
VA could fall to the Democrats in light of the recent scandal...but don't count on it.

That leaves the Dems looking for at least one more to take back control. If not, the Senate will be tied 50-50 and all the leadership positions will remain stocked with Republicans.

The national mood up north, however, has been trending very Dem this year. It would not be terribly surprising if some previously thought Republican stronghold falls.

See you in November with some firm predictions. Most likely we'll be looking at the weakest of strongly Republican states: Probably VA...and something unforseeable today.