Wheat: Rain Needed or no Planting

from CampoDiario.com.ar

"Wheat: 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain needed in order to begin planting

The only areas with sufficient or acceptable moisture to start sowing the grain are some areas of downtown Santa Fe and the center-south of Entre Rios.

The sowing of wheat in 2009/10 runs a serious risk of failure if is a risk if in the next two weeks it does not rain between 40 and 80 millimeters in the main agricultural regions affected by the brutal drought.

Regions that have acceptable or sufficient moisture to start sowing are some areas of downtown Santa Fe and the center-south of Entre Rios, where you need to fall at least 20 millimeters in the coming days.

Meanwhile, in the southeast, central and northern Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Córdoba (where the bulk of the wheat in the country) there is still a serious lack of surface moisture in the soil profile.

"This is vital and crucial to begin the work of planting, given that the lack of later rains is not such a critical issue," said Thomas Infocampo to Parenti, a specialist in the Guide Strategic Agriculture (GEA) of the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario.

"The intention of sowing wheat is almost zero, no producer wants to expose themselves in this complicated scenario," said Parenti, before adding that "the planting will be delayed until there is enough rain, or until the right political signals appear".

The Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires estimates, on a preliminary basis, that in 2009/10 there would be planted 3.70 million hectares nationally, an area that, with the average yields obtained in 2008/09 (20.7 qq / ha), would generate a harvest of 7.65 million tons (versus 8.70 million tonnes in 2008/09)."

Expect big problems in the price of flour and bread ...and maybe even shortages next year, both in Argentina and her major trading partners. Brazil, for example, imports almost all of its hard wheat from here. The 3.7 million hectares forecast for this year is down from 7 million in 2003. Other than the US and Canada, there is no other big producer of hard wheat (suitable for bread) in the Américas other than Argentina.

Related articles:
Financial Times
Bloomberg
MercoPress